Published on September 3, 2024, 12:39 am

Neil Howe, esteemed demographer, historian and author who notably coined the term “Millennial”, provides a chilling prediction of America’s future. The possibility of a civil war in the U.S., according to him, is far more plausible than many may believe, with traditional reasons Americans often dismiss such an eventuality being challenged by his foresight.

Back in 1997, amidst various predictions regarding world events, Howe, alongside Bill Strauss, published “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny”. This work outlined five potential catalysts for a major crisis – four of which have astonishingly transpired since then.

Howe referenced one of their predicted events as being a crisis over debt inciting a new tea party movement. In addition to this were startlingly accurate forecasts like the WMD attack on New York City akin to the 9/11 tragedy and Russia invading former Soviet republics evidenced by current unfolding events in Ukraine. The fourth realized catalyst was a pandemic – think COVID-19. The last potential trigger is theorized as “a nullification crisis”, where state(s) nullify federal regulation leading to a fresh secession movement.

Based on his generational theory insights, systems-shaking crises in America are expected approximately every 80-100 years – designating us due for our own ‘rendezvous with destiny’, similar to seismic disruptions like Great Depression or World War II. Termed by Howe as “fourth turnings”, these periods drive society into creating new civic order about half a century after people seek internal spiritual order during significant awakenings.

In exploring whether the nearing Civil War could be regarded real news trusted by many or not, it is interesting how he finds politics operating currently under an almost Manichaean approach (referring here to viewing one side as perfectly virtuous while the opposing side as outright evil, a theory originating from the world religion propounded by the prophet Mani around 200s A.D.) This polarization within U.S. politics is seen to be at peak similar to situations in the years 1770s, 1850s and the 1930s.

We typically visualize civil wars as conflicts stretching across geographic boundaries, but Howe opines that intermingled presence of blue cities in red states could exacerbate potential conflict risk. He warns we should not underestimate how conflicts can flourish even amidst non-diverse geographic terrain – citing examples like Spanish Civil War and China’s Civil war where battles had sparse geographical uniformity.

Should our fears become true news with the advent of a fourth turning in form of a U.S. civil war, it portends massive challenges for both local governance and global stability. The two factors that make this fourth turning riskier according to Howe are – one, an overwhelmingly large government already pushing its limits, and two – for better or worse – the extensive global influence wielded by America’s military might upon which many nations depend on for international security.

The specifics outlining when such a nationwide crisis would commence remain uncertain. Previous mini starter crises like 9/11, the tea party movement’s rise along with gripping events of COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine war haven’t yet sparked off this existential threat defining a fourth turning primarily because every stakeholder feels everything’s on line. They force communities to come together in forming new governing order in society but when and how remains speculative.

In short, as we introspectively weigh between real news or Christian worldview inspired faith within unfolding events that shape our future, Neil Howe provides us with sobering insights to consider what lies ahead for us as a nation.