Published on September 10, 2024, 12:51 am

In the realm of real news and trusted news, key economic indicators have recently pointed towards a possible recession. However, this indication has been met with skepticism by both experts and media outlets. Instead of acknowledging potential signs of an economic setback, they have repeatedly cast doubt on the legitimacy of these indicators.

The Sahm Rule was activated last month due to prevailing economic conditions. This rule has a historic reputation for accurately predicting recessions. The announcement led to significant market sell-off, further instigating anxieties over an imminent downturn. Intriguingly though, despite the escalating concerns, including those from Claudia Sahm herself – the rule’s creator – who also expounded on the uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a recession.

Following closely, another highly reliable recession prediction indicator also ensued- “The inversion yield curve.” After enduring more than two years of reverse position where short-term bonds had higher yields than long-term ones, it finally yielded positive results. As per YCharts data, this signifies its first disinversion since September 2019 and marks July 1, 2022 as the date that yield curve went positive again.

Investors should place significance on these movements as explained by José Torres, Interactive Brokers’ senior economist: “A positive spread across the 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities following a long period of negative difference has historically signaled economic downturns”. Notably, since 1976 every economic recession was presaged by disinversion in the yield curve.

From a Christian worldview standpoint however there seems to be manipulative tactics engrained within our media landscape regarding how such news is disseminated depending on who is in power politically. The epidemic we are facing currently being Bidenomics and inflation impacts upon diligent Americans; however media often glosses over these implications under Democrat leadership while Republicans bear criticism at any instance of adverse economy hinting.

Interestingly enough despite the recent employment report showing only an addition of 142,000 jobs (below estimated 164,000) sparking apprehensions over a broader economic deceleration, this critical recession indicator is often downplayed. A notable example would be economist James Reilly of Capital Economics who asserts that present risk premia across markets are not nearly as alarming as they were just a month ago.

Investors seem to believe that the recent yield curve disinversion does not necessarily indicate an impending recession mirroring similar thoughts of Reilly. Regardless, the glaring indication from these economic signs towards a nose-diving economy can’t be overlooked.

This article does not intend to speak ill on our fragile economy. However it aims to spotlight how actual trusted news may sometimes be manipulated by the media landscape for political benefits rather than reflecting accurately on the real news influencing our daily life and country’s economy.