Published on February 13, 2024, 2:48 am

In a surprising turn of events, former Maryland governor Larry Hogan, previously considering a presidential run under the No Labels movement, announced his bid last week for an open U.S. Senate seat. As Republican candidates have historically struggled to reach 40 percent of the vote in this area, Hogan’s entry could make the race more competitive while aiding Republicans in gaining control over the Senate. This campaign is double-edged since it involves both a May primary and a November general election.

Larry Hogan’s political self-assuredness needs to overcome barriers formed by ego and ambition. A substantial challenge he faces is losing conservative support due to his search for mainstream media visibility as a No Labels contender. It’s one thing being opposed to Trump—something Hogan has done since 2016—but another thing entirely alienating conservatives by criticizing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Hogan’s national aspirations and extreme rhetoric haven’t sat well with many within the Maryland GOP—especially those dedicated to solidifying the party’s conservative presence in a state dominated by Democrats. A telling example was seen during a Republican fundraiser held in Baltimore recently where Hogan was largely overlooked.

The GOP instead spotlighted former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich, attracting around 400 attendees including state and local party leaders, ex-administration officials, and long-time party luminaries. Given that Hogan served in Ehrlich’s cabinet, his absence was conspicuous. This might provide insight into how likely Republican voters will regard him at polling time.

On closer examination, what appears advantageous for Hogan’s campaign may indeed prove detrimental due to contradictory evidence in his record. For instance, a significant point in Hogan’s campaign is improving Maryland’s business environment. However, using similar analysis methods employed during his previous campaigns reveals that Maryland now ranks 45th nationally for its business climate as listed by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation which takes individual income, corporate tax burdens among other factors into account.

Another assumed advantage commonly cited by mainstream media is Hogan’s popularity due to maintaining high approval ratings while Governor. Maryland Republicans took a different view during the 2022 primary when Hogan’s selected successor was soundly defeated by a pro-Trump candidate.

Larry Hogan should be recognized for some successes, including rolling back tax increases and spending of O’Malley’s era. But going forward, such political aids may not reappear. Now, the crux of Hogan’s campaign will be identifying and attracting voters seeking alternatives in a race that initially started without them. If he wants to succeed, Hogan needs to base his election run on more than just achievements – he must show an earnest willingness to earn the office rather than expecting it as a reward.

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