Published on March 5, 2024, 12:58 am

In an unfolding situation, a source from the Biden administration disclosed on Saturday that Israeli officials have “essentially” agreed to a “framework” for a prolonged ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deal could potentially lead to the release of some hostages taken by Hamas during their attack on Israel on October 7 last year. However, there was no immediate confirmation as to whether Hamas would accept this proposal.

This announcement by the Biden administration seems more like hopeful thinking. In the backdrop lies previous assertions by Israelis that they’ve given Hamas until around March 10 – the commencement of Ramadan – to let go off these hostages or brace themselves for an intensified Israeli offensive centered around Rafah in southern Gaza.

In turn, Iran has reportedly cleared Hizballah, its primary proxy force, to escalate their attacks on Israel raising concerns about further destabilization in the region.

Unfortunately, President Biden is facing significant challenges catering to his anti-Israel allies’ demands. Recent events such as last week’s Michigan primary where over 100,000 voters voted “uncommitted” as an expression of discord towards him by Muslim anti-Israel groups playing out against ongoing tensions in Gaza puts his leadership and diplomacy into scrutiny.

Parsing frantic moves by Biden’s administration such as sudden air drops of food and other supplies into Gaza shows deep concern due to regional developments thwarting desired progress.

For weeks now, Biden has been continually pressurizing Israelis for a ceasefire agreement but has been met with resistance while over a hundred hostages are still being held captive by Hamas. The acceptance of any proposed “framework” will essentially be futile if Hamas does not relinquish control over its remaining hostages.

If however, these captives are released before March 10th there might be some optimism regarding a potential long-term cease fire. Sadly though this represents merely half-a-ray of light at the end of a long tunnel because without complete dismantling and destruction of Hamas along with their governance structures within Gaza, the terrorist group would most likely recover and resume jurisdiction over the Gaza Strip.

Historically, Ramadan exemplified a period of fasting, peace, and prayer within the Muslim community. However, it has often been associated with igniting wars between Muslim factions as well as conflicts against Israel such as the infamous attack on October 6th, 1973 when Egyptian and Syrian forces coordinated an assault against Israel coinciding with Yom Kippur. Injustice was dealt to Israeli air forces in early stages of that war until they turned the tide and emerged victorious.

It appears unlikely at this point in time that Hamas will comply with Biden’s current ultimatum which doesn’t necessitate releasing all hostages but only women, children, and elderly captives. Israel is insistent on demanding freedom for all these hostages it believes are held by Hamas before any cease fire agreement can hold water.

The Michigan vote outcome showcasing pro-Hamas sentiment frightened Biden’s administration revealing vulnerability in its political standpoints. Depending heavily on U.S military aid, Israel continues to be under pressure from Biden who already initiated threats to withhold aid if Israel did not implement all U.S humanitarian regulations within a few weeks.

Correspondingly troubling is Hamas’ success in leveraging propaganda by inferring 30,000 civilian casualties -mostly women and children- due to ongoing fights in Gaza. These figures are propagated without differentiating terrorists from civilians despite being largely unverified and taken from official Hamas press releases.

According to Israeli reports at least 10K Hamas terrorists have been neutralized during their campaign in Gaza. They are reportedly focusing efforts towards locating top commanders of Hamas like Yayha Sinwar believed to be hiding out around Rafah while Ismail Haniyeh shuttles between Iran and Qatar.

Despite ceasefire attempts by Biden seeking hostage release followed by immediate ceasefire lasting six weeks; irrationality persists as most of distributed aid provisions end up falling into hands of Hamas. And, if Iran’s apparent signal for Hizballah to escalate attacks on Israel holds true as reported by the Jerusalem Post, then these conflicts could pose a threat to Israel’s survival and draw the region closer to war.

Already battling terror activities in Syria, Israel now finds itself amidst a three-front war struggling with limited chances of victory without U.S aid.

Neither Hamas nor Hizballah seem concerned about civilian casualties in Gaza as their main aim recklessly adopts strategies aimed at Israel’s obliteration. Though Biden reiterates his support for the “two-state solution” to tackle this Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it would only reward terrorism as pointed out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

Without receiving every last hostage held by Hamas before March 10th, Israelis will likely execute an offensive against Rafah in southern Gaza targeting remnants of Hamas. This could result in the escape of Sinwar across Egypt or Qatar given that all Arab nations have denied accepting Palestinian refugees from ongoing conflicts.

One can expect Israel may emerge victoriously during Ramadan hostilities however opinionated propaganda from Hamas ensured through local and global media outlets may sway perceptions adversely against them.