Published on June 18, 2024, 12:49 am

A recent Suffolk poll reveals a decline in support for Joe Biden among black voters in two critical swing states, representing a significant shift compared to the 2020 elections. The trend of decreasing trust for Biden within this voter group is seemingly continuing.

The poll displays that in Pennsylvania, Biden holds 56% of black votes, while his rival Donald Trump possesses 11%. Meanwhile, third-party nominees Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein have combined support of 16%. Furthermore, in Michigan—another state critical for Biden’s win—he manages to secure only 55% of the black vote compared to Donald Trump’s 15%, and another 15% going towards third-party candidates.

These figures suggest that there is an evident downfall in Biden’s popularity among Black voters who voted him into power during the last election. Approximately seventy-six percent of polled citizens in each state claimed they had cast their vote for Biden four years prior. However, his current favorability has decreased by twenty percentage points down to 56% in Pennsylvania and twenty-two percentage points down to 54% in Michigan.

Exit polls from the previous election showed that Biden received an overwhelming majority (92%) of the Black vote from these states—an even steeper contrast with his latest standing. Respondents’ explanations for this dissatisfaction included disappointment with his performance in office, concerns about his age or cognitive stability, or unease over international conflicts such as Israel-Gaza conflict.

Despite these detractors, more than half of respondents viewed Biden positively: favorability was stated at 61-to-31% and 59-to-33% ratios in Michigan and Pennsylvania respectively. This still signifies notably reduced rates compared with former President Obama’s approval numbers which stood at an impressive rate of 88-to-9% and 84-to-11%.

Simultaneously, Trump seems to have gained traction among black voters versus four years ago—displaying six-point and eight-point cease in Michigan and Pennsylvania respectively. While this might not seem significant on the surface, minor shifts in support such as these could swing a closely contested election.

Interestingly, Trump held more substantial support amongst Black men than Black women—22-to-9% in Michigan and 16-to-6% in Pennsylvania. However, overall his disapproval ratings still surpass Biden’s—72-to-23% non-favorability in Michigan and an even higher 79-to-15% rate of disapproval in Pennsylvania.

Whilst surveys note Trump receiving increased backing from black voters, there is much to be done to affirm this polling inclination. Amplifying black voter engagement continues to be imperative for Trump to seal potential victory.

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