Published on May 30, 2024, 1:14 am

The prospective landscape for the 2024 presidential election appears to be expanding and inching considerably towards the favor of former President Donald Trump. It’s not merely the reality that states crucial in determining the victor of the 2020 election are increasingly showing a preference for Trump, there is strong evidence suggesting an enlargement of pivotal states in the 2024 race, vibrantly reflecting Trump’s growing appeal. As we’re five months away from the formal beginning, President Joe Biden find himself on defensive over more than 100 critical electoral votes, while having less than 20 potential electoral votes he could realistically seize from Trump.

The thin line that differentiated both candidates in the previous presidential vote was narrower than most realize. Despite Biden’s victory by a margin of 4.4 percent on total popular votes, seven states were decided by less than three percent of their popular vote. These were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with margins as slim as 2.8 percent down to as little as 0.24 percent gap providing Biden with essentially his winning edge over Trump through key electoral votes – four out of these seven swung the past presidency election in Biden’s favour by fewer than 77,000 votes!

But how things can change over four years! As per national polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Biden’s current approval rating seems to have hit a dip at just above 40%, marking a drop by over fifteen percentage points since January last year; polling data for a two-way race pegs him at just over 46% and a mere approximated 39% when viewed in a five-way race perspective.

Interestingly enough though is how this modelling pans out across those same battleground states from the last presidential rigmarole which were won by Biden; Recent polling averages suggest Biden now languishes behind in each one of them and trails by approximately three percentage points (44.6 percent compared to 47.7 percent) when combined. In fact, Biden’s deficit has grown from 1.3 percent four years ago to presently 4.8 percent in the state of North Carolina – the only battleground state won by Trump in 2020.

Five states not considered pivotal in the previous election are now also showing signs of changing course from their projected safe margins for Joe Biden; Main, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia fluctuating enough to make pollsters sit up and take note! Back-to-back polls in Minnesota show slimming Biden’s lead down to a mere two percentage points – far below his former lead margin of over seven percent; while New Hampshire points towards a six-point headway, this potentially indicating a widening battlefield arena nearly twice as large as that of 2020!

However, could Trump have unprotected territories too? He certainly did – but data seems to suggest he now commands leads far greater than his initial narrow winning margins back in 2020: Texas carries an eight point advantage for Trump according to current polling data while Florida confides a possibly victorious Trump by around nine percentage points.

The emerging trend slants glaringly towards the notion that battle lines drawn on the 2024 presidential map could be possibly doubly extensive than its predecessor. However with speculative winds blowing convincingly towards Trump’s sails as opposed to Biden’s waning breeze resonating across most if not all these battlegrounds, he merely needs to reverse a mere fraction (around thirty-five) of electoral votes previously siding with Biden given that he maintains his clasp over previously secured states where comfortable lead opportunities currently seem favourable.

A quantified perspective reveals Biden grappling with a potential loss cutting deep into around one hundred and eleven critical electoral votes out of which Trump needs just more than a quarter share whereas Biden’s room for recompense spans only one state positioned at approximately sixteen electoral votes!

Things still yet might take turn as the election still sits marginally far away on the horizon and Trump himself faces an array of legal ordeals currently in motion. While current scenario paints a sparkling gleam of optimism for Trump, unpredictability underpinned by a decisive public opinion will ultimately hold sway in angling this 2024 battlefield either to escalate amidst its steepening slope or provide an unexpected leveler along the journey’s path.